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OPTAIN D3.1 - Climate scenarios for integrated modelling

Submitted by Ananda Rohn on
Short Description
This deliverable provides bias-corrected regional climate model (RCM) simulation data for all OPTAIN case studies, serving as a crucial input for the project’s integrated modelling approaches. The main objective is to ensure that all case studies have access to harmonized, high-quality climate data—covering historical and future scenarios—so that the impacts of water retention measures can be robustly assessed under changing climate conditions.


Summary of Content
- Overview of the methodology for preparing bias-corrected RCM data, including the selection of variables, reference datasets, and climate models.
- Use of EURO-CORDEX RCM simulations and three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5.
- Application of non-parametric empirical quantile mapping for bias correction, using ERA5-Land reanalysis as the reference.
- Interpolation of gridded climate data to specific case study locations using universal kriging, ensuring data suitability for both catchment and field-scale modelling.
- Evaluation of the bias-correction process and analysis of the climate model ensemble, including reliability assessments for projected changes in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity.
- Presentation of results for all 14 case studies, with detailed annexes on data availability, model selection, and analysis procedures.
- Public availability of the resulting climate scenario datasets for further research and modelling.


What You Will Find
- A clear explanation of how climate data was prepared and harmonized for use in OPTAIN’s modelling work.
- Detailed descriptions of the selected climate variables and scenarios, and how they relate to agricultural water management.
- Insights into the reliability and expected range of future changes in temperature, precipitation, and other key climate variables across different European regions.
- Practical information on the structure and content of the climate datasets, including file formats and organization.
- Annexes with technical details, data tables, and visualizations illustrating the bias-correction process and climate projections.


Who Is It For?
- Researchers and modelers working on climate impact assessments in agriculture and water management.
- Case study leaders and project partners needing robust climate data for scenario analysis and modelling.
- Policy makers and advisors interested in understanding the range and reliability of future climate projections for European agricultural regions.
- Students and educators seeking examples of applied climate data processing and bias correction.


Why Download This Deliverable?
- To access harmonized, bias-corrected climate data tailored for integrated modelling in diverse European agricultural catchments.
- To understand the technical steps and quality checks involved in preparing climate scenarios for research and decision support.
- To benefit from transparent documentation and practical examples of climate data processing, relevant for similar projects or studies.
- To support robust, evidence-based planning for water and nutrient management under future climate conditions.

Practical Information
Publication date: February 28, 2022
Length: 44 pages